---
title: Use of Simulation to Assess Regression Diagnostics
author: "John Maindonald"
date: "01/01/2019"
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bibliography: vigref.bib
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# Calibration of Regression Diagnostics

Indications of departures from regression assumptions in diagnostic
plots may reflect sampling variation.  This is an especial issue for
relatively small datasets.  Diagnostic plots for a number of sets of
simulated data may be an essential aid to judgement.  In effect, the
observed diagnostic plot is judged against a simulated sampling
distribution for such plots.

## A 'simple' straight line regression example
We use data, from the _DAAG_ PACKAGE, that compares record times
for Northern Island hill races between males and females:
```{r LOAD-DAAG}
library(DAAG, warn.conflicts=FALSE)
library(latticeExtra)
```

The data that are plotted in Figure \@ref(fig:mf) are, as they
stand, problematic for least squares fitting. A least squares line has
nevertheless been added to the plot.  The discussion that immediately
follows highlights problems that would largely be
avoided if a logarithmic transformation had first been applied on
both axes.

```{r mf, eval=FALSE, echo=FALSE}
plot(timef~time, data=nihills,
     xlab="Male record times",
     ylab="Female record times")
mtext("Female vs male record times", side=3, line=0.25)
mftime.lm <- lm(timef ~ time, data=nihills)
abline(mftime.lm)
plot(mftime.lm, which=1)
```

```{r cap1, echo=F}
cap1 <- "Record times for hill races are compared -- 
females versus males." 
```


```{r mf, fig.width=4.0, fig.height=4.25, eval=TRUE, echo=FALSE, out.width="47%", fig.show='hold', fig.cap=cap1}
```

Code is:
```{r mf, eval=FALSE, echo=TRUE, tidy=FALSE}
```

Figure \@ref(fig:diag-mftime) shows
the four default diagnostic plots from the
regression on `timef` on `time`.

```{r cap2, echo=F}
cap2 <- "Diagnostic plots from the regession of `timef` on `time`."
```

```{r diag-mftime, fig.width=2.85, fig.height=3.15, eval=TRUE, echo=FALSE, out.width="22%", fig.show='hold', fig.cap=cap2}
plot(mftime.lm, cex.caption=0.8, ask=FALSE)
``` 

## The function `plotSimScat()`

The function `plotSimScat()` is designed for use with
straight line regression.  It plots either actual data values
and simulated values against the $x$-variable, or residuals and
simulated residuals.

Figure \@ref(fig:4sim-xy) shows four scatterplots that overlay
residuals from the actual data with residuals that are simulated from
the model.  The coefficients used are those for the fitted least
squares line, and the standard deviation is the estimate that is
returned by R's `lm()` function.

```{r cap3, echo=F}
cap3 <- "The plots are four simulations of points.  The coefficients
  used, and the standard deviation, are from the fitted least squares line.  The residuals from the fitted model are in gray."
```

```{r 4sim-xy, fig.width=7.0, fig.height=3.0, eval=TRUE, echo=FALSE, fig.cap=cap3}
mftime.lm <- lm(timef ~ time, data=nihills)
gph <- plotSimScat(mftime.lm, show="residuals")
gph <- update(gph, xlab="Record times for males (h)",
              ylab="Record times for females (h)")
print(gph)
```

The largest simulated value lies consistently above the data value.
Code is:
```{r 4sim-xy, ref.label="4sim-xy", eval=FALSE, echo=TRUE}
```


# Diagnostic Plots for Simulated Data -- `plotSimDiags()`

The function `plotSimDiags()` can be used with any `lm`
object, or object of a class that inherits from `lm`.
For simplicity, the function is used here with a straight line
regression object.  As a basis for the diagnostic plots, for the object
`mftime.lm` that was created earlier, from use of
`plot.lm()`.

## Residuals versus fitted values

Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich1) shows simulations for the first panel
(Residuals vs Fitted) above.  With just one explanatory variable, the
difference between plotting against $\hat{\alpha} + \hat{\beta} x$ and
plotting against $x$ (as in Figure \@ref(fig:4sim-xy) using
`plotSimScat()`) amounts only to a change of labeling on the
$x$-axis.  The plot against $x$-values in Figure \@ref(fig:4sim-xy)
had the convenience that it allowed exactly the same $x$-axis labeling for
each different simulation.

```{r cap4, echo=F}
cap4 <- "Residuals versus fitted values, for four sets of simulated data."
```

```{r 4simwhich1, eval=TRUE, echo=FALSE, fig.width=7, fig.height=3.0, fig.cap=cap4}
plotSimDiags(obj=mftime.lm, which=1, layout=c(4,1))
```

Code is:
```{r 4simwhich1-code, ref.label="4simwhich1", eval=FALSE, echo=TRUE, tidy=FALSE}
```

The simulations indicate that, in these circumstances, there can be
a pattern in the smooth curve that is added that is largely due to
the one data value is widely separated from other data values.

## A check for normality:

Figure \@ref(fig:diag-mftime) (the second plot) identified two large
negative residuals and one large positive residual.

Are the deviations from a line much what might be expected given
statistical variation?  Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich2) shows
normal probability plots for four sets of simulated data:

```{r cap5, echo=F}
cap5 <- "Normal probability plots for four sets of simulated
  data."
```

```{r 4simwhich2, fig.width=7, fig.height=3.0, eval=T, echo=FALSE, fig.cap=cap5}
plotSimDiags(obj=mftime.lm, which=2, layout=c(4,1))
```


Code is as for Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich1), but with the argument
`which=2`.

## Is the variance constant?

At the low end of the range in Figure \@ref(fig:diag-mftime)
(the third plot), the variance hardly changes with increasing fitted
value.  The sudden bend upwards in the smooth curve is due to the
large absolute values of the residuals for the three largest fitted
values.

Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich3) shows the equivalent plots for four sets of simulated data.  None of the plots show the same increase in scale with
fitted value as in the third panel of Figure \@ref(fig:diag-mftime).

```{r cap6, echo=F}
cap6 <- "Scale-location plots for four sets of simulated data."
```

```{r 4simwhich3, fig.width=7.0, fig.height=3.0, eval=T, echo=FALSE, fig.cap=cap6}
plotSimDiags(obj=mftime.lm, which=3, layout=c(4,1))
```

Code is as for Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich1), but with the argument
`which=3`.

## Issues of leverage

Figure \@ref(fig:diag-mftime) (the third plot) warned that there are severe
problems with leverage, as was already obvious from the
scatterplot in Figure \@ref(fig:mf).  Here, there is not much point
in doing a simulation.  We already know from the previous simulations
that the large residual that is associated with the highest leverage
point is unlikely to be due to statistical variation.

Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich5) shows plots for simulated data:

```{r cap7, echo=F}
cap7 <- "Scale-location plots for four sets of simulated data."
```

```{r 4simwhich5, fig.width=7, fig.height=3.0, eval=T, echo=FALSE, fig.cap=cap7}
plotSimDiags(obj=mftime.lm, which=5, layout=c(4,1))
```


Code is as for Figure \@ref(fig:4simwhich1), but with the argument
`which=5`.

## All 4 default diagnostic plots in the same call

Do for example:
```{r all4, eval=T, echo=T}
gphs1to4 <- plotSimDiags(obj=mftime.lm, layout=c(4,2))
```

Then `gphs1to4[[1]]` holds simulations for the first
diagnostic plot, `gphs1to4[[2]]` holds simulations for
the second diagnostic plot, and so on.

To show the first set of diagnostic plots, enter:
```{r plot1, eval=F}
update(gphs1to4[[1]], layout=c(4,2))
```

This approach has the advantage that the same simulated data
values are used for all diagnostics, without the need to set
a prior random number seed.

## What further checks and tests should be applied?

It bears emphasizing that, depending on the
nature of the data, there will be further checks and tests
that should be applied.  

Comments in @tukey_1997 are apt. There should be incisive
and informed critique of the data used, of the model, and of
the inferences made.  Exposure to diverse challenges will
build (or destroy!) confidence in model-based inferences.
Specific types of challenge may include:

* For experiments, is the design open to criticism?
* Look for biases in processes that generated the data.
* Look for inadequacies in laboratory procedure.
* Use all relevant graphical or other summary checks to
critique the model that underpins the analysis.
*Where possible, check the performance of the model on
test data that reflects the manner of use of results.
(If for example predictions are made that will be applied a
year into the future, check how predictions made a year
ahead panned out for historical data.)
* For experimental data, have the work replicated
independently by another research group, from generation of
data through to analysis.

It is important that analysts search out all available
information about the processes that generated the data,
and consider critically how this may affect the reliance
placed on it. We should trust those results that have
withstood thorough and informed challenge.

For observational data, the challenges that are appropriate
will depend strongly on the nature of the claims made as a
result of any analysis.  Analyses of observational data 
commonly afford large opportunities for over-interpretation
and/or misinterpretation.

Data that have been collected over a
significant period of time is an important special case. Departures
from a fitted line may well show a pattern with time. The functions
`acf()` and `pacf()` should be used to check for
autocorrelation in the residuals.

Additionally, the process used to generate the data, and
subject area insights, will set limits on the inferences
that can reasonably be drawn.

## References
