---
title: "Sensitivity Analysis: Deficiency vs. E-values"
author: "Deniz Akdemir"
date: "`r Sys.Date()`"
output: rmarkdown::html_vignette
vignette: >
  %\VignetteIndexEntry{Sensitivity Analysis: Deficiency vs. E-values}
  %\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
  %\VignetteEncoding{UTF-8}
---

```{r setup, include = FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
    collapse = TRUE,
    comment = "#>",
    fig.width = 7,
    fig.height = 5
)
```

## Introduction

Sensitivity analysis answers: **"How strong would unmeasured confounding need 
to be to change our conclusions?"**

Several frameworks exist:

| Framework | Key Metric | Interpretation |
|-----------|------------|----------------|
| **E-value** | Risk ratio needed | "Unmeasured confounder must have RR = X" |
| **Partial R²** | Variance explained | "Confounder must explain X% of variance" |
| **Le Cam Deficiency (δ)** | Information loss | "Transfer penalty bounded by $M\delta$" |

This vignette shows how **deficiency-based sensitivity analysis** relates to 
and extends traditional approaches.

---

## Conceptual Translation

### The E-value Perspective

The E-value (VanderWeele & Ding, 2017) asks:

> "To explain away the observed effect, an unmeasured confounder would need 
> to have a risk ratio of at least E with both treatment and outcome."

For an observed risk ratio RR, the E-value is:

$$E = RR + \sqrt{RR \times (RR - 1)}$$

### The Deficiency Perspective

Deficiency (δ) takes a decision-theoretic view:

> "Given the information gap between observational and interventional data, 
> the worst-case regret inflation term is bounded by $M\delta$ (and there is a minimax floor $(M/2)\delta$)."

Key insight: **δ directly quantifies policy consequences**, not just 
statistical associations.

### Conceptual Mapping

| E-value Concept | Deficiency Equivalent |
|-----------------|----------------------|
| "Effect explained away" | δ → 1 (maximal deficiency) |
| "Effect robust" | δ → 0 (zero deficiency) |
| E-value = 2 | Moderate unmeasured confounding |
| E-value = 5 | Strong unmeasured confounding |

---

## Practical Example

### Setup

```{r example-setup}
library(causaldef)
set.seed(42)

n <- 500
U <- rnorm(n) # Unmeasured confounder
W <- 0.7 * U + rnorm(n, sd = 0.5) # Observed covariate
A <- rbinom(n, 1, plogis(0.5 * U)) # Treatment
Y <- 2 * A + 1.5 * U + rnorm(n) # Outcome (true effect = 2)

df <- data.frame(W = W, A = A, Y = Y)

spec <- causal_spec(df, "A", "Y", "W")
```

### Deficiency Estimation

```{r deficiency-calc}
def_results <- estimate_deficiency(
    spec,
    methods = c("unadjusted", "iptw"),
    n_boot = 100
)

print(def_results)
```

### Confounding Frontier

The confounding frontier maps deficiency as a function of confounding strength:

```{r frontier-plot, fig.height=5}
frontier <- confounding_frontier(
    spec,
    alpha_range = c(-3, 3),
    gamma_range = c(-3, 3),
    grid_size = 40
)

plot(frontier)
```

**Reading the Plot:**

- **X-axis (α)**: Strength of U → A path (treatment selection)
- **Y-axis (γ)**: Strength of U → Y path (outcome confounding)
- **Color**: Deficiency δ (darker = larger information loss)
- **Zero frontier**: The boundary where δ = 0 (perfect identification)

### Policy Regret Bound

```{r policy-bound}
bounds <- policy_regret_bound(def_results, utility_range = c(0, 10), method = "iptw")
print(bounds)
```

---

## Comparison with E-values

### Computing an Approximate E-value

For comparison, we can compute the E-value for our effect estimate:

```{r evalue-calculation}
# Effect estimate
effect <- estimate_effect(def_results, target_method = "iptw")
print(effect)

# For E-value calculation, we need to convert to risk ratio scale
# This is an approximation; exact E-values require binary outcomes
# Here we use the standardized effect size

# Assuming effect is on continuous scale, we can compute
# a pseudo-risk ratio via effect size transformation
effect_se <- 1 # Approximate SE (would be from bootstrap in practice)
effect_est <- effect$estimate
t_stat <- effect_est / effect_se

# Approximate conversion to OR (for conceptual illustration)
# Using Chinn's (2000) formula for approximate OR from mean difference
approx_or <- exp(effect_est / 1.81)

# E-value formula
if (approx_or > 1) {
    e_value <- approx_or + sqrt(approx_or * (approx_or - 1))
} else {
    e_value <- 1 / approx_or + sqrt(1 / approx_or * (1 / approx_or - 1))
}

cat(sprintf("
Approximate E-value: %.2f

Interpretation: To explain away the observed effect, an unmeasured
confounder would need a risk ratio of at least %.2f with both
treatment and outcome.
", e_value, e_value))
```

### Deficiency vs. E-value: Key Differences

| Aspect | E-value | Deficiency (δ) |
|--------|---------|----------------|
| **Scale** | Risk ratio | Total variation distance |
| **Interpretation** | Strength needed to "explain away" | Information loss for decisions |
| **Decision utility** | Abstract | Direct (via $M\delta$ transfer penalty) |
| **Multi-method** | Single estimate | Compares strategies |
| **Negative controls** | Not integrated | Built-in diagnostics |

### When to Use Each

**Use E-values when:**
- Communicating to epidemiologists/clinicians familiar with RR
- Binary outcomes with clear risk ratio interpretation
- Want a single summary number

**Use Deficiency (δ) when:**
- Need decision-theoretic bounds (policy regret)
- Comparing multiple adjustment strategies
- Have negative control outcomes available
- Working with non-binary outcomes (continuous, survival)
- Need to combine with sensitivity frontiers

---

## Extended Sensitivity Analysis

### Benchmarking Observed Covariates

A key advantage of the frontier approach is **benchmarking**: we can 
see where observed covariates fall on the confounding map.

```{r benchmark}
# Add more covariates for benchmarking
df$W2 <- 0.3 * U + rnorm(n, sd = 0.8)
df$W3 <- 0.9 * U + rnorm(n, sd = 0.3)

spec_multi <- causal_spec(df, "A", "Y", c("W", "W2", "W3"))

frontier_bench <- confounding_frontier(
    spec_multi,
    grid_size = 40
)

# Access benchmarks
if (!is.null(frontier_bench$benchmarks)) {
    print(frontier_bench$benchmarks)
}
```

**Using Benchmarks:**

The benchmarks show the inferred confounding strength of each observed 
covariate. If an unmeasured confounder would need to be "stronger than W3" 
(which we know explains 81% of U's variance), conclusions are robust.

### Combining with Negative Controls

```{r full-analysis}
# Add negative control
df$Y_nc <- U + rnorm(n, sd = 0.5) # Affected by U, not by A

spec_full <- causal_spec(
    df, "A", "Y", c("W", "W2", "W3"),
    negative_control = "Y_nc"
)

# Complete analysis
def_full <- estimate_deficiency(
    spec_full,
    methods = c("unadjusted", "iptw"),
    n_boot = 100
)

nc_full <- nc_diagnostic(spec_full, method = "iptw", n_boot = 100)

print(def_full)
print(nc_full)
```

---

## Summary: Unified Sensitivity Analysis

The `causaldef` approach provides a **unified** framework:

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                     SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS                         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  confounding_frontier()                                          │
│    → Maps δ as function of confounding strength (α, γ)          │
│    → Benchmarks observed covariates as reference points         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  nc_diagnostic()                                                 │
│    → Empirical falsification test                               │
│    → Bounds δ using observable negative control                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  policy_regret_bound()                                           │
│    → Translates δ into decision-theoretic consequences          │
│    → Transfer penalty = Mδ; minimax floor = (M/2)δ              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

**Key Advantages:**

1. **Decision-theoretic meaning**: δ bounds actual regret, not just association strength
2. **Multi-method comparison**: See which adjustment does best
3. **Empirical validation**: Negative controls test assumptions
4. **Visual sensitivity**: Frontiers show robustness at a glance

---

## References

1. Akdemir, D. (2026). Constraints on Causal Inference as Experiment Comparison. 
   DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18367347

2. VanderWeele, T. J., & Ding, P. (2017). Sensitivity Analysis in Observational 
   Research: Introducing the E-value. Annals of Internal Medicine.

3. Cinelli, C., & Hazlett, C. (2020). Making Sense of Sensitivity: Extending 
   Omitted Variable Bias. JRSS-B.

4. Torgersen, E. (1991). Comparison of Statistical Experiments. Cambridge 
   University Press.
